CFR Analysis: Obama's Biggest Foreign Policy Quandary

President Barack Obama's State of the Union address tomorrow is likely to focus on domestic economic problems rather than on foreign affairs, says Richard N. Haass, the president of CFR. He says this reflects that "the world of foreign policy and national security is relatively calm" in contrast to the economy. He believes that "Iran will prove to be the most compelling foreign policy issue of 2010." Haass recently wrote an article advocating that the United States try to foster peaceful regime change in Iran in the wake of the apparently rigged elections last June.

President Obama has indicated that he's going to stress "fighting for the middle class" in his State of the Union address. In fact, he hasn't really talked about foreign affairs lately, and it is uncertain how much attention it will get in the speech. Has foreign affairs dropped to the bottom of his priority list?

There are two reasons that the speech is virtually certain to focus on the domestic economy. The first is the actual state of the domestic economy and the politics that surround it. Obviously that's the subject that's most on the minds of the American people. But secondly, it also reflects the fact that by contrast, the world of foreign policy and national security is relatively calm. Even though American forces are in large numbers in Afghanistan and Iraq, mercifully, U.S. casualties are low. The attempted terrorist attack in the airliner over Detroit on Christmas Day did not succeed, which made it a several-day story but not a lingering one. Even the attention to Haiti is beginning to fade because what grabbed peoples' attention was the human emergency, but the long-term challenge of developing Haiti is not going to be a front page story. So again, the reason for the domestic economic focus is a recognition that foreign policy and national security have receded from the forefront of the American political conscience. And there is an awareness that economic issues remain paramount.
Continued