Nearly three months after the United States and Israel launched the most significant direct military campaign against Iran in modern history, a fragile ceasefire is fracturing in real time. On 25 May, US forces conducted what the Pentagon described as "self-defence strikes" against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats actively laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz — the global chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil transits daily. The IRGC has responded by threatening reciprocal action and redefining the Strait as a "vast operational area." Peace negotiations in Doha remain deadlocked on the nuclear question. The conflict may have entered a post-offensive phase, but it has not ended.